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Municipal · 2027 Presidential prediction

We project each ward, then add them up. A candidate can have several predictions — their votes are the importance-weighted average, and swing votes close the gap.

Municipal total

The aggregate of every ward below. Predictions are made per ward.

NDC
1 prediction: 68.1%
135,469
68.1%
APC
1 prediction: 17.1%
34,021
17.1%
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)29,359

Ward by ward

Each ward in Municipal: the predictions per candidate (broken into components), swing votes, and past results.

40,930 registered
NDC
projected votes
5,034
56.8%
Base projection5,034 · 56.8%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi4,609
Party Popularity340
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso85
APC
projected votes
1,956
22.1%
Base projection1,956 · 22.1%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu1,532
Party Popularity424
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)1,877
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 5,384 · APC 1,667 · PDP 1,620 · NNPP 112 · BP 38 · ZLP 12 · APGA 9 · APM 6 · ADC 5 · YPP 4 · A 3 · AA 3 · APP 2 · ADP 1 · AAC 1 · 8,867 total · won LP
93,579 registered
NDC
projected votes
19,794
76.3%
Base projection19,794 · 76.3%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi18,420
Party Popularity1,020
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso354
APC
projected votes
3,292
12.7%
Base projection3,292 · 12.7%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu2,017
Party Popularity1,275
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)2,852
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 20,813 · PDP 2,417 · APC 2,194 · NNPP 506 · APP 2 · AAC 2 · ZLP 1 · APGA 1 · YPP 1 · A 1 · 25,938 total · won LP
38,497 registered
NDC
projected votes
8,999
72.6%
Base projection8,999 · 72.6%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi8,446
Party Popularity496
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso57
APC
projected votes
1,704
13.7%
Base projection1,704 · 13.7%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu1,084
Party Popularity620
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)1,691
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 9,385 · PDP 1,750 · APC 1,178 · NNPP 81 · 12,394 total · won LP
30,603 registered
NDC
projected votes
4,371
53.2%
Base projection4,371 · 53.2%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi3,983
Party Popularity328
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso60
APC
projected votes
2,106
25.7%
Base projection2,106 · 25.7%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu1,696
Party Popularity410
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)1,733
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 4,426 · PDP 1,854 · APC 1,844 · NNPP 86 · 8,210 total · won LP
58,406 registered
NDC
projected votes
12,371
74.3%
Base projection12,371 · 74.3%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi11,625
Party Popularity644
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso102
APC
projected votes
2,290
13.8%
Base projection2,290 · 13.8%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu1,485
Party Popularity805
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)1,989
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 13,423 · APC 1,628 · PDP 1,446 · NNPP 146 · ZLP 2 · APP 2 · A 1 · SDP 1 · APGA 1 · 16,650 total · won LP
123,502 registered
NDC
projected votes
25,256
71.4%
Base projection25,256 · 71.4%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi23,637
Party Popularity1,370
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso249
APC
projected votes
5,549
15.7%
Base projection5,549 · 15.7%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu3,836
Party Popularity1,713
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)4,575
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 27,152 · APC 4,296 · PDP 3,547 · NNPP 375 · ADC 3 · AA 3 · YPP 2 · BP 1 · A 1 · 35,380 total · won LP
97,030 registered
NDC
projected votes
12,610
63.9%
Base projection12,610 · 63.9%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi11,781
Party Popularity689
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso140
APC
projected votes
2,467
12.5%
Base projection2,467 · 12.5%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu1,606
Party Popularity861
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)4,652
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 15,195 · PDP 2,357 · APC 1,942 · NNPP 212 · ZLP 5 · AAC 3 · ADC 3 · BP 2 · YPP 2 · AA 2 · APGA 2 · A 1 · APM 1 · ADP 1 · NRM 1 · 19,729 total · won LP
77,292 registered
NDC
projected votes
10,281
70.8%
Base projection10,281 · 70.8%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi9,571
Party Popularity588
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso122
APC
projected votes
2,976
20.5%
Base projection2,976 · 20.5%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu2,242
Party Popularity734
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)1,264
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 10,383 · APC 2,477 · PDP 1,476 · NNPP 184 · AA 1 · 14,521 total · won LP
69,131 registered
NDC
projected votes
15,130
74.4%
Base projection15,130 · 74.4%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi14,197
Party Popularity825
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso108
APC
projected votes
3,357
16.5%
Base projection3,357 · 16.5%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu2,326
Party Popularity1,031
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)1,849
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 15,703 · APC 2,346 · PDP 2,132 · NNPP 152 · A 2 · APGA 1 · 20,336 total · won LP
89,308 registered
NDC
projected votes
12,968
67.2%
Base projection12,968 · 67.2%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi11,941
Party Popularity772
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso255
APC
projected votes
3,960
20.5%
Base projection3,960 · 20.5%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu2,995
Party Popularity965
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)2,377
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 13,268 · APC 3,255 · PDP 2,418 · NNPP 364 · 19,305 total · won LP
15,788 registered
APC
projected votes
2,101
42.1%
Base projection2,101 · 42.1%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu1,851
Party Popularity250
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
NDC
projected votes
2,044
40.9%
Base projection2,044 · 40.9%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi1,796
Party Popularity200
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso48
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)851
Historical results
2023 Presidential: APC 2,012 · LP 1,995 · PDP 920 · NNPP 69 · 4,996 total · won APC
49,038 registered
NDC
projected votes
6,611
52.8%
Base projection6,611 · 52.8%
Candidate Popularity Peter Obi6,012
Party Popularity423
Running-mate Popularity Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso176
APC
projected votes
2,263
18.1%
Base projection2,263 · 18.1%
Candidate Popularity Bola Tinubu1,735
Party Popularity528
Running-mate Popularity Kashim Shettima0
≈Swing Votes (Unknown)3,649
Historical results
2023 Presidential: LP 6,840 · APC 3,666 · PDP 1,738 · NNPP 248 · NRM 24 · ZLP 3 · APGA 2 · AAC 1 · PRP 1 · 12,523 total · won LP
See the full Municipal profile (history, wards, polling units) →
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