How Nigeria 2.0 collects, weights and publishes the numbers behind our election analysis — and why you can trust them.
Our numbers combine three streams: nationwide opinion polling conducted by our field teams, a standing online panel of registered voters, and on-the-ground reports from our volunteer network across all 36 states and the FCT. Each wave samples voters proportionally to a state’s registered-voter population.
Raw responses are weighted to match Nigeria's demographic reality — by state, age band, gender, and urban/rural split — using the latest INEC voter register and national census estimates. This corrects for who we happen to reach so the sample reflects the electorate, not just our respondents.
We blend current polling with historical voting patterns and turnout models for each state to project a likely outcome. Governorship and presidential races are modelled separately, because voters often split their tickets. Confidence intervals widen where sample sizes are smaller or races are volatile.
Figures refresh as each new polling wave closes — typically every two weeks — and more frequently in the final months before an election. Every update is timestamped, and the trend arrows on our homepage compare the latest wave to the one before it.
The figures shown across this site are illustrative projections, not official results. We publish our sample sizes, field dates and margins of error alongside every release, and we correct the record openly whenever new data changes the picture.